By Mahendra Ved, IANS
New Delhi : Pakistan could come under a draconian measure like martial law or national emergency as a desperate reaction from the government following the Supreme Court’s verdict Thursday allowing the Sharif brothers to return home.
This, despite the strong denial by President Pervez Musharraf in an interview last Tuesday.
Media reports have since emphasised that such measures were not being ruled out. Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz and some of his ministers have also indicated this likely course of action in the recent weeks.
It is well known that Musharraf planned this measure earlier this month, but refrained, reportedly after a telephone call from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The landmark verdict by the apex court allowing the return from exile of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his younger brother, former Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif throws the political scene in complete uncertainty.
One, it delivers a big blow to Musharraf’s plans of a smooth re-election to the presidency next month, and two, it makes the promised general elections a complete political free-for-all.
The political line-up as of now is Musharraf and his allies – the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid) and Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) – versus the rest. And the ‘rest’ are a phalanx of political parties of different hues and ideologies.
If the Sharif brothers return home after the apex court’s verdict, so can their archrival Benazir Bhutto, another prime minister in exile. Whether the Musharraf regime will detain them on arrival and push various corruption cases against them remains to be seen.
For the moment, Bhutto and Sharif are rivals once again. The two had come closer against common adversary Musharraf and had signed the Charter of Democracy in May last year. However, its working and the composition of its adherents had remained nebulous.
In subsequent months, Bhutto violated one of the basic tenets of the Charter by engaging in talks with Musharraf, while Sharif either rebuffed – or was rebuffed from – any rapprochement with Musharraf.
Bhutto, widely perceived as working under the influence of the US that was keen on a moderate political combine to keep out the religious extremists in the elections, has reached an understanding that she has gingerly admitted in recent months, while Musharraf consistently played it down.
What happens to the much-speculated ‘deal’ under which Bhutto was tipped to return as a third-time prime minister after the elections is now a question mark.
This needed parliamentary legislation to waive an earlier law passed in 2002, but parliament prorogued Wednesday without passing any such bill.
While a Musharraf-Bhutto deal has become uncertain, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) could align with the Islamist conglomerate Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA).
The apex court’s judgement was in a sense expected, considering the critical comments and observations made from time to time by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, both before his March 9 suspension by Musharraf on charge of misuse of office and after his reinstatement July 20.
Pakistan’s judiciary was widely perceived as having come under pressure because of the treatment meted out to Chaudhry, which triggered a nationwide agitation.
The apex court may play the referee on many issues before it that can determine the political course in the coming months.
Much would, however, depend upon how the government of the day reacts to Thursday’s verdict. It has already declared that it will honour the verdict, but that statement gives no clue to its course of action after the Sharifs get back to Pakistan.