News analysis: Can Fukuda shake off difficulties by reshuffling Cabinet?

By Xinhua,

Tokyo : Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda reshuffled the Cabinet and shook up the executive lineup of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Friday, retaining only four of the 17 Cabinet members. It was the first reshuffle by Fukuda since he took office and inherited most of the Cabinet last September from his predecessor Shinzo Abe. Why did Fukuda make a major change to the Cabinet at this time? What are the characteristics of the new Cabinet? And what will the reshuffle bring to the Fukuda administration?


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The ruling coalition, made up of the LDP and its minor partner the New Komeito Party, lost the majority in the House of Councilors when the LDP was defeated in the upper house election in July, 2007. After coming into the post, Fukuda extended invitation to the major opposition the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) for a coalition government, but was declined.

The DPJ, together with others in the opposition bloc, forced to abortion of several important bills at the upper house, including the special anti-terrorism measures law. Although the LDP forcibly managed the bill through the parliament by its two-thirds majority in the more powerful House of Representatives, or the lower house, in accordance with the parliamentary law, the seldom-used political measure aroused public discontent and led to the decline of support rate of the government.

From the beginning of this year, affected by issues related to the people’s livelihood, such as the blunder of pension records and the new medical system for seniors, the approval rating of the Fukuda Cabinet continued to declined even below the dangerous level of 20 percent. In the meantime, public dissatisfaction with the government was aggravated under rocketing oil and food prices and the deterioration of economic situation, which push ordinary people into harder lives.

Fukuda has thought of regaining public trust by scoring in diplomacy at which he is proficient. However, despite the significant improvement of ties with China and South Korea in the first half of 2008 and his successful chair at the Group of Eight summit in early July, the Cabinet support rate has not enjoyed an obvious lift.

In this circumstance, personnel adjustment turned to be a critical means for survival. Japanese media said the major reshuffle of the Cabinet demonstrated Fukuda’s leadership and decision.

As for the appointment of the new LDP leadership and the lineup of the new Cabinet, interests of all parties in the ruling coalition were evenly considered, as persons from all factions of the LDP were chosen, and one post in the Cabinet was kept for the News Komeito Party.

Former Foreign Minister Taro Aso, one-time rival of Fukuda in the LDP presidential election last year, was re-appointed secretary general and No. 2 of the ruling party, while powerfuls such as Bunmei Ibuki, Toshihiro Nikai, Sadakazu Tanigaki and Kaoru Yosano were re-invited into the Cabinet. The lineup was called by Japanese media as “heavyweights” system.

Analysts said the choice of Aso, who boasts communication channel with the New Komeito Party and is especially welcomed by the younger generation, was aimed at improving the popularity of and building the harmony for the LDP.

However, the resort to heavyweights at the same time further exhibited the difficulties for the Fukuda administration, analysts pointed out.

At a press conference following the reshuffle, Nobutaka Machimura, who retained the post of chief cabinet secretary, dismissed that the reshuffle was aimed at bolstering support rate.

“It speaks for itself that we did not carry out this reshuffle with a view to raising the public support ratings… Our Cabinet aims to figure out ways…, to realize policy issues that face us and to tackle issues,” the top government spokesman was quoted by Kyodo News as saying.

Fukuda himself also named the new Cabinet the one for “realizing ease and comfort” at another press conference later in the day.

The lineup of the Cabinet proved the consideration. For example, no change was made to the most important post of chief cabinet secretary, neither was that to the ones related with foreign affairs and social welfare, stick to which are the long-standing abduction issue and the pending pension records scandal. The arrangements meant no big change of policies on such issues.

On posts related with financial, economic and fiscal policies, seasoned lawmakers adept in the fields were nominated. Such appointments were lauded as wise and proper when turbulence in world economy is posing rising challenges to resources-dependent Japan.

Fukuda’s original Cabinet inherited from Abe was widely regarded as lack of characteristics. It was not only unsuccessful in fulfilling Fukuda’s policies, but also encumbered him with old scandals.

Japanese media said Fukuda was gambling with his political life with the abrupt and extensive reshuffle, which showed his resolute to make a real change. The following question is whether the new team could bring “ease and comfort” to the Japanese people.

If Fukuda could really implement reformative measures by targeting forward mid- and long-term policy goals to provide tangible “ease and comfort” to the people, as he promised at the press conference, the approval rating would undoubtedly return to the upward track and the headache for the next parliamentary election slated for September 2009 would come to an end.

However, the current situation legitimizes no assurance of success for Fukuda. Economic depression incurred by rising oil and food prices is a globally challenge and won’t be turned by Japan’s will and efforts. Pension records and the new medical system for seniors are accumulative issues and have extensive implications.

With regards to relations with the coalition partner the New Komeito party, the LDP should be far from confident of having removed divergences. Kazuo Kitagawa, secretary general of the New Komeito, has said that a reshuffle won’t guarantee higher support rate. Furthermore, the number of posts in the Cabinet for the party has not increased as the New Komeito asked for.

Japanese media pointed out the new Cabinet faces two outstanding challenges. Firstly, scandal involving Cabinet members would deal a fatal blow to Fukuda; secondly, failure to satisfy the public and improve the support rate would ignite anti-Fukuda trend even within the ruling coalition and eventually lead to the prime minister’s resignation.

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