By NNN-Bernama
Melbourne : Afghanistan will struggle to secure its southern regions 15 years from now, with Australian troops still needed to combat terrorism, a leading think-tank says.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Taliban militants and others seeking to disrupt the democratic government in Kabul will still be conducting bombings and irregular insurgencies in southern and eastern provinces in 2023.
“In 15 years time, Afghanistan is likely to be divided geographically,” the institute said in a paper.
“An optimistic vision sees the government in Kabul with a tangible writ across the north and west,’’ it said.
“Provincial leaders will respond to central directives because Kabul is delivering the benefits of international assistance.
“In the south and east, Pashtun provincial leaders will take part in national governance and several provinces will be passive. However, areas of Kandahar , Helmand and the eastern provinces that border Pakistan will suffer from insurgency.”
Many intelligence agencies believe al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden could be hiding on the Pakistani side of one of the most porous borders in the world.
Australian troops will still be needed in the central Asian nation in 2023, the paper says.
It also suggests Australian police could be used to train Afghan police.
A small number of Australian officers are already in Afghanistan serving as part of the UN force.
“There may be scope for a bigger Australia Federal Police presence in areas where the insurgency is absent but law and order is weak.
“Some NATO militaries are currently conducting police training. This is potentially counter-productive just as police would not be used to train infantry, soldiers are not suited to preparing a police force.
“Only coordinated donor funds and the right personnel will improve the situation.”
Australia will have about 1,000 troops in Afghanistan by the middle of this year, concentrated in southern Oruzgan province.