By M. Burhanuddin Qasmi
The alarm bells for the Gogoi-led Assam Congress had already started ringing in 2006 when Badruddin Ajmal’s nascent Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) snatched 10 assembly seats from its minority strongholds in the general poll. Eastern Crescent, an English monthly from Mumbai, had carried cover story on the issue in May 2006 and opined that in post -AUDF Assam the vote-bank politicking of the Congress to secure Muslim support will be genuinely challenged. EC also pointed out that the emergence of AUDF was unlike other Muslim-led political parties in post-independent India because Maulana Ajmal, a visionary for some, had chosen to tread on the thorny political path and would woo the voters with full vigour. By the beginning of 2008, Ajmal, the perfume merchant, is turning into a mature politician, trying to raise the political consciousness of minorities in Assam beyond the constricting real politick of the Congress.
The present Congress-led Assam government is literally in deep water and the pressure on central Congress leadership in Delhi is mounting from all quarters. Very recently the party faced a shocking defeat in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and lost 42 per cent seats to the opposition in rural (Panchayat) election in Assam for a bad beginning to year 2008. The Congress won 15 out of the 21 Zilla Parishad Councils (ZPC), yet the party is virtually failed in keeping its vote-bank intact.
In Assam six districts are under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution of India, which are governed by an autonomous council. Save two councils the rest are lately hostile towards the Congress and opposition parties– AGP, BJP and Left have made considerable inroads in the Congress strongholds. For the pre-poll violence in Goalpara and the Congress sponsored violence on the day of polling in Hailakandi the State Election Commission, under the alleged pressure of the ruling party, deferred elections in both the districts to check AUDF’s growing strength. So except Hailaknadi and Goalpara the ruling Congress got 233, AGP 59, AUDF 45, BJP 17 and others 32 out of 385 Zila Parishad seats in the state.
Notably in 2001, 90 per cent of the total seats went to the Congress and except one all 21 Zila Parishad Councils (ZPC) were bagged by it. But in the recent election, the Congress with all— ZPC, AP President, AP member and GP member could win only 47.87 per cent of the seats. During the resent election the administrative machinery was fraudulently used to favour the ruling party. Nevertheless, the significant swing of votes to AUDF from congress pockets, has put the party in the third position, pushing BJP to the fourth, has shaken the complacency of the Congress leadership in Assam as well as Delhi.
In the assembly election in 2006 the four major players INC, AGP, BJP and AUDF received 28.35, 21.08, 10.88 and 9.07 per cent total votes in the state respectively. This time around AUDF alone made a 5.01 per cent gain pushing the party’s percentage of vote-share to 14.08 in the state which will increase to at least 1.50 per cent more when election is held in minority dominated districts Goalpara. The AUDF has gained at the expense of the Congress and if the present trend continues, the Congress stands to lose at least four parliamentary seats in the next elections due within a year.
To further complicate matters for Gogoi and Indian National Congress, a People’s Consultative Group (PGC) member Hiranya Saikia has accused the Assam chief minister, two of his cabinet ministers and some security personnel of conspiring to kill him. Hiranya Saikia, a vital link between the government and the separatist terrorist group United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), claimed to have received a threat to his life and termed it as part of a conspiracy hatched by a section of politicians and security personnel to derail the peace process set in motion to resolve the insurgency problem in the northeast.
Saikia is a member of PCG, which ULFA constituted in September 2005 to facilitate direct talks between the group and the government of India. Saikia made some startling revelations regarding the ULFA-government nexus in his press meet in February in Guwahati and said that he had been used by chief minister Gogoi to grab the chair in Dispur. He reportedly said, “Tarun Gogoi government sought ULFA’s help in 2006 assembly election, in organizing national game in Guwahati last year and even in recently held panchayat elections”.
Opposition parties, AGP, AUDF and BJP are seeking the centre’s intervention to probe Saikia’s claims. They demanded CBI probe in the matter and asked the CM to remain out of his Dispur office still investigation is over and he is freed from the charges. So far the Congress high command has not responded to the opposition demands in Assam but the party should set its own house in order if it wants to retain power in the next elections and not play with fire by utilizing the ULFA to make up for its own adequacies.
(Author M. Burhanuddin Qasmi is editor of Eastern Crescent and director of Mumbai based Markazul Ma’arif Education and Research Centre. He can be contacted at [email protected])