By Xinhua
Warsaw : During his recent visit to the United States, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk finally got the promise from U.S. President George W. Bush to help modernize the Polish military.
Poland has been yearning for the U.S. promise since the two countries resumed negotiations in January 2007 on a planned U.S. missile shield system, which includes ten missile interceptors to be deployed in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic.
However, despite the “breakthrough,” Poland still faces many obstacles to give the green light to the deployment of a U.S. missile shield on its soil, analysts say.
Domestic concerns
A day after Tusk’s meeting with Bush at the White House, Polish Defense Minister Bogdan Klich said Tuesday that the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system in Poland would depend on the country’s security situation despite pledges by Washington to upgrade its military.
The minister said the Polish government is assessing whether the promised U.S. military aid can offset a possible security threat to Poland brought about by the deployment of the missile shield.
Klich said if Poland’s national security should be undermined as a result of the scheme, the government will by no means ink a deal with the United States on the issue.
Out of security concerns, Poland has asked the U.S. to provide Patriot 3 or THAAD missiles and listed 17 areas of its military that the U.S. could help modernize. Poland has also asked for military aid worth several billion U.S. dollars.
Poland also wants to forge closer ties with the U.S., demanding a bilateral relationship similar to the one between the U.S. and Britain.
The Polish government’s desire for such a hard bargain with the United States is also a response to the concerns of the Polish people.
According to opinion polls, the majority of the Polish people oppose the deployment of the missile shield in the country, saying it would place Poland in a dangerous situation.
The Russia element
Another element that may deter Poland from signing a deal with the U.S. is Russia’s vehement opposition to the missile shield system.
Russia has been arguing that the system would threaten Russian national security and pledged to carry out reprisals should it be deployed in eastern Europe.
Bilateral relations between Russia and Poland had been tense since November 2005, when Russia imposed an embargo on meat products from Poland, accusing Poland of presenting false veterinary certificates.
Poland responded by vetoing an EU proposal to launch negotiations with Russia on a new partnership deal.
With Tusk elected as Polish Prime Minister in November 2007, the Polish government said on several occasions it was willing to improve ties with Russia and lifted its veto on the EU-Russia partnership talks in mid February.
But despite signs projecting a better relationship, Poland may still face pressure from Russia on the missile shield issue, analysts said.
Uncertainties in the U.S.
Bush said his administration would work out a detailed plan to modernize the Polish military before his term expires in January, but analysts believe that to finish such a task within the time frame would be difficult.
Moreover, the huge Polish demand for weapons, military aid and closer ties may scare the U.S. government. Even if the Bush administration agrees, it might be stalled by the Democrat-controlled Congress.
A final agreement on the missile shield system between the two countries has been delayed several times since negotiations were resumed in January 2007, and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said recently the talks would last for another several months before a deal is reached.