India’s growth to slip to 5 percent in 2009: ADB


Manila : Economic growth in developing Asia was expected to slow to its lowest rate in more than a decade due to the global economic crisis, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday. It predicted India’s economic growth would be five percent in 2009.

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The Asian Development Outlook, the annual report of the Manila-based ADB, forecasts economic growth in Asia to slide to 3.4 percent, down from 6.3 percent last year and 9.5 percent in 2007.

The report said that India’s economic growth will ease to 5 percent in 2009 from 7.1 percent in 2008, but was expected to recover in 2010 as the global economy recovers.

The report also said China’s economic growth was expected to slow to 7 percent in 2009, but the quick response of Beijing to minimise the impact of the crisis could result in 8 percent growth in 2010.

The report said that if the global economy experiences a mild recovery next year, the economic growth for the region could expand 6 percent in 2010.

“With the slow growth, more than 60 million in 2009 and close to 100 million in 2010 will remain trapped in poverty – living on less than $1.25 a day – than would have been if growth had continued at its earlier pace,” the report said.

But the ADB report noted that Asian economies were in much better position to cope up with the adverse impact of the crisis than they were during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, when economic growth averaged 0.2 percent.

“Many Asian governments have already responded quickly to the crisis with appropriate financial, monetary and fiscal policies and so far the impact on financial stability has been limited,” it said.

The ADB said the current crisis underlined the risks of growth that is excessively dependent on export-driven expansion.

“Developing Asia should rebalance growth to endure the global crisis and boost its resilience to large external shocks in the long run,” it said.