By Zhang Yanyang, Xu Gang, Xinhua,
Jerusalem : As U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice concluded another visit to the Middle East Tuesday evening, any progress on a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians remained elusive.
Rice’s seventh visit to this region this year to advance the sluggish Middle East peace process, was aimed at trying to realize the goals set by the U.S.-hosted peace conference in Annapolis last November, when Israeli and Palestinian leaders pledged to make efforts to reach a comprehensive peace deal by the end of 2008.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office said Tuesday in a statement that Olmert and Rice still believe the Israelis and the Palestinians can reach a peace deal within this year.
However, the peace efforts are challenged by the political turmoil in Israel, where Olmert faces fraud and bribery probes and has announced to resign after his ruling Kadima party’s primary elections in mid-September, and by the conflict between the pragmatic Fatah and the hardline Hamas at the Palestinian side.
With Olmert leaving office in September and Palestinian power divided between Fatah and Hamas, Rice is left with few allies, analysts said.
“At this point, it (Rice’s visit) doesn’t matter because they are going to be out of office,” Professor Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center of the Interdisciplinary Center, told Xinhua in a telephone interview.
Rice is spending her time on this issue when she should be spending her time on Georgia and other problems, Rubin said, noting that self-interest played a big role in the rush for Rice and Olmert to establish a tangible peace accord before they had to leave office.
Olmert believes in the immediate achievement of a shelf agreement, a deal whose implementation will be spread over the course of a decade or so, aimed at fixing the borders of a future Palestinian state, settling the refugee problem and establishing security arrangements.
But Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a main contender for Israel’s premiership, has cautioned against increased U.S. pressure in hopes of reaching a comprehensive peace deal before President George W. Bush leaves office in January 2009, comparing the current situation to the year 2000 when the Camp David peace talks collapsed and violence erupted.
Many see the failure of the second Camp David peace talks as the spark that led to the second Palestinian uprising, which has so far claimed thousands of Palestinian and Israeli deaths.
Livni believes that comprehensive talks must continue on all issues and that Israel should avoid any unclear agreement.
She is especially opposed to Rice’s suggestion to publicize a paper of partial agreements noting the views of each side on different issues.
Analysts agreed that the political interests of Rice and Olmert were obvious as both want to end their respective tenure with some diplomatic achievement.
“In some way, they are making a desperate effort to be remembered,” Dani Dayan, chairman for YESHA (the Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip), told Xinhua.
“This rush to finish something that could not be finished in weeks or months could be catastrophic. They can only accomplish it by leaving loads of things unresolved,” Dayan said.
Some analysts said it was irrational to believe that Rice could fix a peace accord over the next couple of months while Olmert lurks in government as caretaker prime minister as the Palestinian side was not sufficiently understood or engaged.
“Without examining public opinion, the balance of force in Fatah, the state of the leadership of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), who will probably be out of office as well next year, it is not responsible to rush a peace accord,” Rubin said.
“They don’t look at Palestinian politics, which includes what is aired on the radio, taught in school, and preached in the mosque, all of which makes up public opinion,” Rubin said, stressing that Palestinian public opinion was still largely ignored by the United States.
“What people say in Arabic is really what is important,” he added.
Rubin noted that even with the current political leadership it would still prove very difficult to get Olmert and Abbas any closer on a peace accord.
“Abu Mazen is in many ways relatively moderate, but he is not moderate on the Palestinian refugees’ right of return, which is very close to his heart,” Rubin said, noting that it was an issue neither side was currently willing to compromise on.
Livni, a front-runner to replace Olmert, is also less keen to establish a peace agreement by the end of this year.
Livni has suggested deferring resolution of the Jerusalem quandary, the return of Palestinian refugees to a future Palestinian state and the demilitarization of such a state.
Meanwhile, Palestinian negotiators keep stressing the importance of the Palestinian refugees’ right of return and the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Analysts agreed that negotiations were likely to continue, though prospects remained low.
The continuation of negotiations will bring the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) much international support, Rubin said, adding that Israel wants to keep the PNA in power because it is much better than Hamas.
“Israel wants to show it is for peace and it wants to keep the West Bank quiet, so it can focus on other issues it has such as Gaza, Iran, Hezbollah,” he explained.