By Faisal Fareed, TwoCircles.net
Lucknow : Reading the writing on the wall about Samajwadi Party being on sticky wicket, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav may have opened the channel for forging grand alliance with Congress but it may result in political hara-kiri for the septuagenarian leader.
In the 25 year journey of SP, Mulayam has forged pre-poll alliance only once in 1993 with BSP and became chief minister. Though he has taken outside support of Congress during his two other stints as CM of UP. He too has supported Congress led UPA I & II government without being part of it.
Mulayam, and for that matter, any political leader in Hindi belt understands that a successful Congress will be an oblivion for the Yadav satrap. Mulayam’s political career began with anti-Congress movement and later after Mandal politics he cemented his position with shifting of Muslim votes from Congress to SP in wake of Babri masjid demolition.
The thumb rule of any alliance is transfer of votes to the partner parties. The politics of Hindi belt is determined by caste factor. Here communities have their own leaders and align with their parties. Congress without mixing words cannot claim any caste as its voter uniformly across the state. Dalits and Muslims have deserted her, upper caste have better option in form of rejuvenated BJP while OBC have no trust after the rise of socialists in form of Janata Dal in 1989 in wake of Mandal era. Left with no choice, Congress can pat its back that it believes in Vikas and not caste.
On technical ground Congress can claim to have secured 13.26 percent vote share on the 355 seats it contested in 2012 assembly polls. But among these its candidate lost deposit on 240 seats and won only 28. Going by that standard, the record of RLD led by Ajit Singh is much better as it polled 20.05 percent votes in the 46 seats it contested and won nine. Vote percent is only for analysis purpose and serves no value on ground during polls. For example—it is not possible that 13.26 percent of Congress vote is automatically transferred to its alliance partner. Further in the changed scenario, it will be Herculean task for Ajit Singh to transfer his Jat voters to Muslim candidate of RLD in western UP. Vote share thus stands defeated.
Congress leaders confide that they are not in a position to form government on their own in 2017 polls. The maximum they can do is improve their tally little bit and galvanise their workers in pockets of influence. For them the main target is 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
From here Mulayam comes in picture. After the family drama in Yadav parivar, if SP goes with Congress, it will be a boon for it but bane for SP. Congress will benefit but SP may not be able to extract that much mileage. A strong Congress implies shifting of non BJP voters towards it which are now distributed among SP and BSP. Naturally if any community shifts towards Congress, the loser will be SP. For example if Muslims shifts towards Congress, it will wipe out SP from political scenario of UP and it will be confined to few districts only. Congress thus will start from the gain in 2017 polls for coming 2019 LS polls.
The only advantage which can be perceived in case of any grand alliance like situation is that SP led group will create a psychological aura among non BJP voters that they are the only alternative to defeat BJP.
For Mulayam in the worst scenario even if SP loses the polls and BJP assumes power in the state, it is still a comfortable situation for him as he will still champion the cause of minorities and non BJP voters and remain relevant in landscape of UP’s politics. Remember in electoral politics one may not win election but has to have a support and remain valid.
Now comes the Prashant Kishore factor. Going by the developments at Lucknow and Delhi, majority of Congress leaders from UP have shown their displeasure towards PK’s functioning.
PK can be a good brand manager to showcase Rahul but Congressmen are not ready to leave whatever inch of space is left for them at Nehru Bhawan in Mall Avenue of Lucknow which is the headquarter of UP Congress Committee. As mentioned earlier, writing on the wall is clear for PK also—despite all efforts it is difficult (not impossible) to make Congress as number one party in UP. After his two successful stints with BJP in 2014 LS polls and later Nitish Kumar in Bihar, hopes are high for him to deliver in UP for Congress.
Amidst frequent meetings of PK with Mulayam, Shivpal and even Akhilesh don’t be surprised if he is seen managing affairs of SP in coming polls.
Perhaps, Mulayam too knows it and there will be no surprise if he leaves in lurch after giving them high hopes just before assembly polls.